Western Disengagement Will Turn Afghanistan Into a Pariah State
The DiplomatAug 17, 2022
On Wednesday, a Taliban-appointed spokesman to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry confirmed that Kabul signed an agreement with Russia to import key commodities "within days or weeks," including fuel and wheat, at a "special discount."
This comes following reports that the countries had struck an agreement, marking the Taliban's first major economic deal since returning to power in 2021. Moscow agreed to supply about 1M tons of gasoline, 1M tons of diesel, 500K tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and 2M tons of wheat.
The significance of the agreement between Russia and the Taliban government shouldn't be underestimated. While the West is running out of options to continue exerting influence in Afghanistan, Russia and China are in the process of filling the vacuum left by the withdrawal. It's clear that sanctions have failed; now, it's time for the West to take action to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a pariah state.
Despite the agreement between the Taliban and Moscow, Russia doesn't have much to offer Afghanistan, given that its economy is increasingly standing on shaky ground itself following the Ukraine war — it's China and Pakistan that will benefit most from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even a possible official recognition of the Taliban government by Moscow is unlikely to change this.
There's a 70% chance that Russia will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.