The significance of the agreement between Russia and the Taliban government shouldn't be underestimated. While the West is running out of options to continue exerting influence in Afghanistan, Russia and China are in the process of filling the vacuum left by the withdrawal. It's clear that sanctions have failed; now, it's time for the West to take action to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a pariah state.
Despite the agreement between the Taliban and Moscow, Russia doesn't have much to offer Afghanistan, given that its economy is increasingly standing on shaky ground itself following the Ukraine war — it's China and Pakistan that will benefit most from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even a possible official recognition of the Taliban government by Moscow is unlikely to change this.
There's a 70% chance that Russia will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.