Turkey and Israel Restore Diplomatic Relations

    Photo: AFP [via Haaretz]

    The Facts

    • Israel and Turkey announced on Wed. the return of full diplomatic ties between the two nations, including the reinstatement of ambassadors and consuls general after a four-year chill.

    • Although they still harbor deep differences, they've vowed to rebuild their relationship to promote regional stability, strengthen their international position, and expand their economic ties.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Turkey is seeking to improve relations with Israel to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow and recover its influence in the Middle East, which was seriously affected by recent geopolitical shifts throughout the region. This has offered some leverage for Israel to normalize ties with Ankara without jeopardizing its relations with Mediterranean allies such as Egypt and Greece.

    Narrative B

    As new challenges have been emerging on the global stage, it's not only Turkey that's protecting its national interests by pursuing normalized ties in the Middle East. Yes, Israel's regional position has improved since the Abraham Accords, but Tel Aviv remains concerned about Iran's nuclear capabilities, and restoring its diplomatic relations with Ankara is an important step in preparing for a change in the regional balance of power.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that Israel and Turkey's total trade volume will be at least $9.30B (in 2021 USD) in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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