UK By-Elections: Conservatives Lose Two Seats

    Photo: Reuters [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • UK Conservatives suffered two by-election losses on Fri. when the Liberal Democrats took the seat of Tiverton and Honiton, and the opposition Labour Party regained the northern constituency of Wakefield.

    • The results - especially the astonishing success of the Lib Dems, which saw the Conservative share of the vote drop by over 21% - are a blow for PM Boris Johnson, who is currently attending a commonwealth summit in Rwanda.

    The Spin

    Right narrative

    It's difficult to read too much into a midterm by-election result. Such events are usually the subject of protest votes, where apathetic voters stay home rather than come out as they would in a general election.

    Left narrative

    These by-elections are a representative snapshot of the mood of the country. People are sick of Tory rule, and MPs will have no choice but to remove Johnson as leader if they want any chance of the British public trusting them again.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 61% chance that Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister of the UK by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Political split



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