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UK Inflation Hits 10.1%

    UK Inflation Hits 10.1%
    Updated Oct 20, 2022
    Image credit: cnn

    Facts

    • The annual rate of inflation in the UK exceeded 10% for the second time this year in September, according to The Office for National Statistics (ONS). It's the highest level seen in Britain since 1982.[1]
    • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose from an annual rate of 9.9% in the twelve months to August to again hit the record high of 10.1% recorded in July. According to the ONS, soaring food prices were the single largest contributor to the acceleration of inflation.[2]
    • Food costs jumped 14.5% in the year to September - the biggest annual rise since 1980 - with experts citing the war in Ukraine and consequent disruption of grain, oil, and fertilizer supplies from the region as a contributor to the crisis. The Bank of England has said inflation could peak at 11% in October.[3]
    • September's figure is especially consequential as it's used to review the triple-lock pension commitment, a government promise that pensions will rise to match either average earnings, September's CPI rate, or 2.5% – whichever is highest. A rise in pensions that reflects inflation should be implemented by April next year.[4]
    • Recently appointed UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt responded to the figures by stating that the government will "prioritize help for the most vulnerable while delivering wider economic stability." However, on the opposition benches, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has claimed that "this is a Tory crisis, made in Downing Street and paid for by working people."[5]

    Spin

    Left narrative

    To call Liz Truss' tenure as PM shambolic would be an understatement. Ongoing Tory malgovernance has had profound consequences for the global reputation of Britain and its economy. The Conservative party is now a reflection of serious rot in UK politics – Westminster is in dire need of a new Labour government.

    Right narrative

    Truss' best hope of survival is that there's no obvious replacement for the role of Conservative party leader. However, Rishi Sunak is increasingly becoming a clear candidate around which MPs can unite. The current PM is providing a hapless performance after just six weeks in post and her political ineptitude must be stopped to protect the Conservatives' electoral chances.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 50% chance that Liz Truss will no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by Jan. 15, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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