Sunak's five-point plan is potentially game-changing, as it will finally commit the Conservative party to effective action in fighting immigration. Knowing that this is a policy area with the most potential for gaining Tory voters, Sunak has pushed for an immigration crackdown with an eye to the election in 2024. If Sunak sticks to this blueprint, the Conservatives can maintain their majority.
Sunak's policies are an inhumane response which, if implemented, would effectively reject the UN refugee convention — of which the UK was a founding signatory. Under Tory government, the UK is shifting towards aggressive unilateralism.
There is a 50% chance that at least 1.90K migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.