UN: Ukraine's 4M Refugees Exceed "Worst Case Scenario"

    Photo: AFP/Getty Images [via Forbes]

    The Facts

    • UNHCR reports that nearly 10% of Ukraine's pre-war population - or roughly 4M people - have fled the war-torn country since Russia's invasion 5 weeks ago. This is the largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII.

    • UNHCR's previous Mar. 1 report indicated that 4M Ukrainians would be seeking refuge in other countries by July, nearly 3 months from now. Per IOM, the current pace of the mass exodus has already exceeded a "worst case scenario."

    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    The West's open-arms welcome for Ukrainians stands opposite to its treatment of refugees from places like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. Systemic racism, xenophobia, and the unjust stigma of "terrorism" are uncomfortable issues that need to be discussed deeply in host countries.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    While refugee institutions have showed gaps in recent humanitarian crises, the EU has modeled overwhelming hospitality for Ukrainians. This war is creating a "Great Migration" of historic proportions--hopefully this moment will be a catalyst to improve the rights of refugees worldwide.

    Narrative C

    This isn't just Eastern Europe's problem. Western Europe and the US needs to send a stronger message that refugees are welcome. In Poland alone, Warsaw has taken hundreds of thousands of refugees which has swelled the capital's population.

    Establishment split



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