Economist Mohamed El-Erian predicts that US inflation will hit double digits this summer due to the ripple effects of the invasion of Ukraine.
This prediction follows February's US Consumer Price Index showing inflation at a 40-year high of 7.9%.
The war in Ukraine has brought a lot of economic uncertainty and the Fed is having to carefully walk that tightrope: raising rates too quickly is dangerous and can lead to a recession, but leaning too far on the other side of the spectrum can be just as disastrous. The Fed is right to proceed with caution.
The inflation surge began long before the invasion of Ukraine, but the Fed was quick to dismiss it as temporary. We are now seeing the result of their nonchalant approach and it's no surprise that Putin is being used as a scapegoat.
The Metaculus Prediction community predicts that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur in 2031.