• Among 1,005 US Hispanic/Latino individuals surveyed for an Axios-Ipsos Latino poll released weeks before the November midterm elections, 33% said they’d vote Democrat, while 18% were leaning Republican, 23% said they didn’t know how they would vote, 17% said they wouldn’t vote.
  • In terms of top concerns, 37% of respondents cited inflation, and 36% pointed to crime. Immigration (26%), climate change (25%), health care (20%), political extremism or polarization (17%), taxes (14%), racial injustice (13%), and abortion (12%) rounded out the other issues.
  • These results come weeks after a national NBC News/Telemundo poll showed 54% of Latino voters preferred Democrats, compared to 33% leaning Republican. That same poll gave Biden a 51% approval rating, with 45% disapproving of the job he’s done.
  • Democrats often counted on historic support from Latino voters, but former Pres. Trump made major inroads with this demographic in 2020. Democrats have reportedly spent $54M in ads on Spanish-language TV and radio, while Republicans have spent $19M.
  • Latino voters wield major power in several swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Nationwide, Latinos have accounted for 52% of population growth over the past decade, and they now comprise almost one-fifth of the population.
  • Cliff Young, president of Ipsos US Public Affairs provided further context on the poll by saying, “Latino Americans feel relatively cool toward both political parties...This makes them, in many ways, the swing voters of the 2022 election."


Democratic narrative

Continuing to focus on abortion — which crosses all demographics and geographies — is a way to win with Latinos and all ethnic groups. The abortion issue shows how extreme and out-of-touch Republicans are on numerous issues and will be pivotal to the Democrats' messaging with Latinos in the final weeks until the midterms.

Republican narrative

Democrats can keep focusing on abortion all they want, but that focus is just one of many issues that are turning Latino voters against them. In crucial regions, Latino voters are turning to Republicans to tackle issues like crime and inflation. The Democrats' path of preaching "wokeness" isn't working.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance Republicans gain control of the US House of Representatives after the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus community.

Political split



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