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US Midterms: Biden Approval Ticks Up

    US Midterms: Biden Approval Ticks Up
    Updated Nov 06, 2022
    Image credit: reuters

    Facts

    • With just a week to go until the US midterm elections, a two-day national poll on Tuesday found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, up a percentage point from a week earlier.[1]
    • Despite the news, Biden's numbers are still close to their lowest point throughout his tenure — 40%. The Reuters/Ipsos poll also found that nearly one-third of people considered the economy the biggest problem facing the nation as the Democrats prepare to defend their hold on the House and Senate.[2]
    • In a separate poll conducted by Ballotpedia, Biden's approval rating was found to have increased to 44% at the end of October, its highest since December 2021. The poll further found that Congress had a 26% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 63%.[3]
    • According to The American Presidency Project, historical data shows that low presidential approval ratings often couple with a large number of vulnerable seats and tend to cause significant losses for the party in power.[4]
    • While the Senate will reportedly be a toss-up, The Cook Political Report — among many others — has predicted a swing in the House of Representatives in favor of the Republican Party.[5]

    Spin

    Republican narrative

    Democrats are tethered to the President's low approval rating as the party faces darkening midterm prospects. Much like the Biden administration, the Democrats cannot escape voters' concerns over the economy and violent crime. It's clear why the president has avoided key swing states in advance of the midterms — he's a burden on his own party's electoral prospects.

    Democratic narrative

    While an incumbent president is always an electoral disadvantage, the GOP has thrown its rivals an electoral lifeline in the shape of extremist and under-qualified senate candidates. Republicans have put exceptionally poor candidates up for election in key states. Despite continuing ad hominem attacks on their political leader, polls have shown that voters often hold a relatively more favorable view of Democratic over Republican candidates.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 15% chance that Joe Biden will no longer be US President before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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