US Midterms: Hobbs Projected to Defeat Lake for Ariz. Gov

    Photo: businessinsider

    The Facts

    • With 98% of expected votes counted as of Monday overnight, Arizona's Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is projected to become the state's next governor as she leads by a 0.8-point margin over Republican Kari Lake.

    • Hobbs, who ran on a platform that included abortion rights and increasing teacher salaries, will be the first Democrat to hold Arizona's top office since Janet Napolitano resigned in 2009 to work in the Obama admin.

    The Spin

    Democratic narrative

    US voters have sent a clear and strong message to election deniers in these midterm elections. This is even more meaningful in Arizona, which was a hotbed of dangerous denialism this year — Kari Lake was defeated in the gubernatorial race, Blake Masters failed to become senator, and Mark Finchem wasn't elected secretary of state.

    Republican narrative

    It may be time for a pivot away from Trump and his allies. Kari Lake and Senate nominee Blake Masters underperformed compared to other GOP candidates in the state, including state Treasury Kimberly Yee who ran against Lake in the primary for governor. Arizona may benefit from learning from the surging success of Ron DeSantis in Florida.

    Pro-Trump narrative

    It's utterly unfair that establishment GOP lobbyists and politicians who were bragging about the election quickly blamed Trump for the poorer-than-expected results. If they had comprehensively analyzed this election they would realize that turning on Trump is counterproductive. More needs to be done to enhance outreach to small donors and voters.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that the next US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Political split



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