US Midterms: Poll Shows Economic Jitters Are Boosting GOP

    Photo: Tetra Images/Getty Images [via The Week]

    The Facts

    • According to a new New York Times/Sienna College poll released Monday, 49% of likely voters said they'd vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45% who said they'd vote for a Democrat.

    • The results are a shift from the same poll last month, which had Democrats in the lead by one percentage point. The GOP has since gained ground in key Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, as well as districts in Oregon and Rhode Island.

    The Spin

    Democratic narrative

    Voters are being duped by Republican claims. For example: Democrats are not soft on crime; bail reform hasn't lowered arrest rates; inflation came from COVID, not Biden; and the IRS isn't targeting the middle class - Biden is targeting the wealthy tax cheaters. The "hot button issues" are ones that Democrats have real solutions for.

    Republican narrative

    The economic issues referenced in these polls - all of which resulted from high energy prices - began right when Biden took office. The Democrats controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives over the past two years, and none of their policies have improved the lives of American families. This sentiment for change will be reflected in November.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 40% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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