This is the latest indication that Republicans will make significant gains in the 2022 midterms. Democrats have been taking the support of their key voting bases for granted, and Blacks and Latinos, as well as women, are leaving the party. The GOP's tough-on-crime stance and its fiscal responsibility is helping solidify support among traditional Democratic voters.
The Democratic emphasis on identity and inclusion — the very thing that breathed life into the Party two decades ago in the face of Republican control — is today making it more popular with White voters than Hispanic ones. These minority demographics are being taken for granted, but that doesn't mean the Republicans are the right people to represent them or offer them a seat at the table. The Democrats must reinvigorate themselves as the party of social justice for a modern America to ensure that "blue waves" will come in this and future elections.
While polls tend to get a bit more accurate closer to election day, only 6-7% of people pick up the phone when a pollster calls. Polls are an indispensable tool, but they have issues predicting who will actually vote — and they were blind to large sectors of former Pres. Trump's base in 2020. While polls are staples of our political analysis diet, they need to be seasoned with more than a grain of salt.
There is a 50% chance that at least 41.7% of Hispanic voters will vote Republican in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.