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US Midterms: WSJ Poll Says GOP Gaining With Black, Latino Voters

    US Midterms: WSJ Poll Says GOP Gaining With Black, Latino Voters
    Last updated: 2 weeks ago
    Image credit: Reuters/TPX Images of the Day [via Fox]

    Facts

    • Support for GOP candidates among African American and Latino voters is growing, according to polling analysis released by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Monday. [1]
    • Republicans have the support of 17% of Black voters polled, up from just 8% in 2018. The Democrats' lead among Latinos has also shrunk to 5 points today, down from 31% four years ago. [2]
    • The WSJ also noted that Latino voters have demonstrated higher degrees of concern over inflation and developments in the US economy, with some stating that the GOP is more supportive of their desire for economic advancement. [3]
    • Although the reported shift towards supporting the GOP among Black Americans is more incremental than among Latino voters, this still marks a notable development. Democrats have historically relied on Black voters as a dependable voting demographic. [3]
    • The poll detailed how differing educational levels within demographics also reflected a split in political views and voting habits. 61% of sampled Latinos with a four-year college degree substantially favored a Democratic over a Republican candidate, while the GOP led or were at parity among Latinos with less formal education. [3]
    • Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the GOP House Minority Leader, said last week that he's confident that Republicans will retake control of the House of Representatives, saying, "The one thing you always have to remember is majorities are not given - they're earned." [2]
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    Spin

    Republican narrative

    This is the latest indication that Republicans will make significant gains in the 2022 midterms. Democrats have been taking the support of their key voting bases for granted, and Blacks and Latinos, as well as women, are leaving the party. The GOP's tough-on-crime stance and its fiscal responsibility is helping solidify support among traditional Democratic voters.

    Democratic narrative

    The Democratic emphasis on identity and inclusion — the very thing that breathed life into the Party two decades ago in the face of Republican control — is today making it more popular with White voters than Hispanic ones. These minority demographics are being taken for granted, but that doesn't mean the Republicans are the right people to represent them or offer them a seat at the table. The Democrats must reinvigorate themselves as the party of social justice for a modern America to ensure that "blue waves" will come in this and future elections.

    Cynical narrative

    While polls tend to get a bit more accurate closer to election day, only 6-7% of people pick up the phone when a pollster calls. Polls are an indispensable tool, but they have issues predicting who will actually vote — and they were blind to large sectors of former Pres. Trump's base in 2020. While polls are staples of our political analysis diet, they need to be seasoned with more than a grain of salt.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 50% chance that at least 41.7% of Hispanic voters will vote Republican in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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