African Union Suspends Niger Following Coup

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The African Union's decision to suspend Niger's representatives from voting was part of a standard playbook for handling coups in Africa. The AU favors a diplomatic solution and has urged the coup leaders to reinstate President Bazoum and return to military bases. However, if these talks are unsuccessful, the military option is still on the table.

Establishment-critical narrative

Niger's coup leader has pledged to restore civilian rule within three years as part of a peaceful transition. Meanwhile, all sanctions against Niger must come to an end for the sake of the Nigerian people. There must not be any imperial foreign interventions in the country — Niger has a right to defend itself from outside forces.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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