Zelenskyy Calls for Commitments on Ukraine NATO Membership

    Photo: Ukraine's Presidential Press Office

    The Facts

    • Ahead of a major NATO summit in Lithuania next week — coming in the wake of a rebellion inside Russia, accusations of plots to bomb a nuclear plant, and a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has largely not progressed as some had hoped — members of the military alliance, particularly the US, are planning for a challenging problem set.

    • Lithuanian Pres. Gitanas Nauseda said that Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy "might not receive everything he expects in his most ambitious plans, but he will certainly receive a lot." Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for clear commitments that Ukraine can join NATO in recent weeks.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This is a vital NATO summit for Ukraine. Not only does the alliance need to provide a clear road map to Ukraine's future membership, it must provide Ukraine with everything it needs so that it wins this war and reestablishes full control over its internationally recognized 1991 borders. This should include the delivery of ATACMS weapons.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Putin may look weakened following the failed revolt, but this key NATO summit is a time for mature statesmanship. The shifting goalposts on weapons show just how much the war has escalated over 16 months. Now's the time for NATO to realize that its security lies in a settlement with Russia, not doubling down on more weapons and war.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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