Opinion: An Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement may remain elusive for a long time
Commonspace.EuDec 09, 2023
Armenia, Azerbaijan Agree to Work Toward Peace Deal
The Facts
Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to exchange prisoners of war and work toward signing a peace treaty, a sign of significant progress after three decades of conflict in the region.
In a joint statement released on Thursday, the two sides agreed to seize "a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region," adding an agreement could be signed by the end of the year.
The Spin
Narrative A
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds over Nagorno-Karabakh for over three decades. The two countries have already fought two wars to control the region, and an atmosphere of mutual hostility and distrust remains. As previous ceasefire agreements have proven brittle, there's little possibility of peace in the area.
Narrative B
This breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations would ensure a durable and dignified peace in the region. The international community must support the two countries' efforts to agree to an important confidence-building measure, avert another war, and allow Armenians to live side by side in the same region as Azerbaijanis.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that Azerbaijan will invade Armenia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.