Australia, Papua New Guinea Pledge New Security Pact

Photo: Twitter [via ABC]

The Facts

  • In a joint statement on Thursday, Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) pledged to execute a new security pact over the next four months that will include provisions aimed at combating climate change and protecting "independence, sovereignty, and resilience."

  • Marking the first address to PNG's Parliament by a foreign leader since its independence in 1975, Australian PM Anthony Albanese said the Bilateral Security Treaty would bolster the economic and security interests of both nations, with negotiations set to conclude in April and the treaty signed in June.

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

As recently as last year, Papa New Guinea's prime minister had expressed his concerns over being caught in the middle of a conflict between China and the West. Though the Indo-Pacific nation has acknowledged the convenience of military relations with Australia given their close proximity, it's clear that, along with many other regional countries, it has no desire to provoke China the way the US and its major allies have been doing.

Pro-establishment narrative

As Australia and PNG are less than three miles from each other at their closest points, their relationship is unique. Due to this fact, it's important for Australia to continue to support its neighbors in a way that bolsters their growth and resilience. Though Albanese must be careful not to make PNG severely dependent on Australian aid, this pact is both an economic and military win for both countries in the face of China's growing Indo-Pacific footprint.

Nerd narrative

There is a 16% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment split



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