Biden Hosts Pacific Islands, With a Rising China in Mind
New York TimesSep 25, 2023
The Facts
US Pres. Joe Biden announced on Monday that Washington is formally establishing diplomatic relations with two Pacific island nations — the Cook Islands and Niue. He revealed the news at the second annual Pacific Island Leaders Summit hosted by the White House.
In a pair of statements, Biden said he was “proud” to recognize the Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign, independent states. He particularly said that the latter “plays a critical and constructive role in the Pacific, including supporting the region’s sustainable development, security, and marine protection and ocean conservation.”
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Establishing diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue are strategically considered moves in response to growing Chinese influence in the region. The goal is not necessarily to ask countries to choose between Washington and Beijing; instead, it is to help ensure a "free and open" Pacific that is peaceful and hospitable to commercial shipping, especially after China's assertiveness has forced the US to pay increased attention to the region.
Establishment-critical narrative
The South Pacific is of strategic interest to both the United States and China. The geopolitical rivalry for influence has prompted President Biden to diplomatically sweet-talk Pacific island leaders so as to win them over in the battle for influence against China. Those leaders know this, so are now seeking US financing for climate change adaptation and infrastructure projects — the world waits to see if Biden will deliver on his promise to bring the US checkbook to the summit as Washington scrambles for influence.
Nerd narrative
There is a 25% chance that the Solomon Islands will host a Chinese military base before 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
