What to Know About the ASEAN Summit
TimeAUG 2023
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
Current events in Myanmar will have Beijing worried, particularly with conflict escalating to the extent of key trade locations now being lost to a rebel offensive. Having committed vast amounts of money to its Belt and Road Initiative as well as its neighbor's military regime, growing violence in Myanmar places future PRC plans at risk. Consequently, it's likely that China will put to an end any future tests of the authority of Myanmar's junta; there is too much to lose for China not to ensure regional success.
Anti-China narrative
As long as Myanmar remains in a fluid state of weakness, it's a neighboring country that the PRC may influence and shape at will. Chinese weapons are extremely prevalent in Myanmar's border areas. Current fighting in Myanmar's north may play to Beijing's advantage, despite continued public rhetoric of peace and reconciliation. The PRC could certainly gain a Machiavellian foothold in its Southeast Asian neighbor.