China Warns Against Taiwan President Meeting With McCarthy

    Photo: Associated Press

    The Facts

    • On Wednesday, China warned against Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) during her tour of allied countries in the Americas, saying it would be "another provocation that seriously violates the one-China principle."

    • Under the one-China policy, the US acknowledges China’s claims of sovereignty over Taiwan but recognizes the island's status as unresolved.

    The Spin

    Anti-China narrative

    Tsai is simply passing through the US, and her so-called trip is an unofficial visit, consistent with US-Taiwan relations. Any tension or military conflict caused by Tsai's visit would be an outlandish escalation on China's part.

    Pro-China narrative

    China has made its case to the US about why meeting with Tsai would be a provocation, and if the two countries go through with it, they’ll be risking the lives and well-being of the people of Taiwan and undermining the "One China" policy. This trip, posturing as an innocent "transiting through," shouldn’t happen.

    Nerd narrative

    There’s a 68% chance that the US would respond with military force if China invades Taiwan before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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