Day 359: Mixed US Signals on Crimea, Zelenskyy Rules Out Land Concessions

Image copyright: Reuters [via Reuters]

The Facts

  • US Sec. of State Anthony Blinken reportedly told experts in a private call on Wednesday that any Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, and could lead to a wider escalation of the conflict.

  • According to four people with knowledge of the call who spoke to Politico, Blinken said the US is not actively encouraging Ukraine to retake Crimea, but stressed that the decision was Kyiv's alone.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was launched on the pretext of multiple lies, including that Russian speakers in Donetsk were facing a "genocide" and that NATO expansion was threatening Moscow. America and the West must continue to push back against these falsehoods and protect Ukraine's sovereignty from Putin's anti-democratic aspirations.

Establishment-critical narrative

Numerous diplomats through the years have warned that bringing Ukraine into the NATO sphere of influence was an unacceptable prospect for Russia and that it would lead to a conflict with disastrous consequences. Russia's concerns must be listened to if we're ever going to reach a negotiated settlement for this tragic conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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