Day 384: Russia Says Grain Deal Extension Agreed; Doesn't Recognize International Criminal Court

    Photo: AP Photos [via TASS]

    The Facts

    • The Black Sea grain deal — set to expire on March 18 — has been extended for a period of 60 days, Russia's deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko said on Tuesday.

    • The deal, which has been responsible for millions of tonnes of grain leaving Ukrainian ports despite the war, was set to be extended for a period of 120 days, but Russia reportedly insisted on the shorter period, allowing it to terminate the deal if it doesn't see improvements in Russian food and fertilizer exports as part of the agreement. Ukraine criticized the move, stating that it would "strictly" follow the original terms which they say mandate a 120-day extension.

    The Spin

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Russia has agreed to a 60-day extension to the grain deal in the hope that sanctions and barriers to the export of Russian grain and fertilizer is eased within this time. If it's not, Russia will have to withdraw from the agreement.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Despite Russia's claims on food and fertilizer exports, the allegation that the US or Western countries have blocked these is simply not true. In fact, the data shows Russia's food and fertilizer exports have returned to pre-war levels.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 23% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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