Day 314: Russian Backlash After Makiivka Strike

Image copyright: [via Ukrainska Pravda]

The Facts

  • According to multiple reports, a number of prominent Russian nationalists and military bloggers, as well as some lawmakers, have demanded punishment for commanders they accused of ignoring dangers after a Ukrainian attack in the Donetsk region on New Year's Eve killed dozens of Russian troops.

  • In a rare disclosure on Monday, Russia's defense ministry said 63 soldiers were killed on New Year's Eve blasts that destroyed a temporary barracks in a vocational college in the city of Makiivka, just nine miles (15 km) east of and a twin city to the regional capital of Donetsk city. Donetsk city and Makiivka have been controlled by Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) forces since 2014.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin is losing the narrative war against his nationalist base after the deadly strikes in Makiivka. Some reports say the vocational college housed as many as 600 newly mobilized troops and that as many as 100 were killed.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine's strike on Makiivka was carried out with US-supplied HIMARS rockets and killed 63 Russian soldiers on New Year's Eve. This is another example of the deadly carnage resulting from US and Western meddling.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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