Day 365: Tensions Rise Over Breakaway Region of Transnistria

Image copyright: [via Sky News]

The Facts

  • On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions are rising over the breakaway region of Transnistria — a narrow strip of land between the Dniester river in Moldova and the Ukrainian border — sparking fears that a third country could become directly embroiled in the war.

  • During the collapse of the Soviet Union, the mainly Russian-speaking region proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990 and fought a war until a ceasefire was signed 1992. However, Transnistria's status as a state hasn't been internationally recognized; an estimated 1.5K Russian troops are believed to be currently stationed there.


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukrainian forces are planning a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria to justify launching an invasion of the region. Russia's defense ministry is closely monitoring the situation and will respond accordingly to any changes.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia's claims about a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria are likely a cover for its potential plans to invade Moldova. Not only would this flagrantly violate the sovereignty of another country, but it could also open up a western front in its war with Ukraine.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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