With Ukraine continuing to receive advanced weaponry from the West and Russia exhausting its stockpiles, 2023 is the year of victory for Ukraine — including retaking the territory of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
After taking Crimea nearly a decade ago, the peninsula is bristling with air defenses, and Russia has thousands of troops defending it. It's very unlikely that Ukraine will be able to retake the territory any time soon.
There's a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.