Day 346: US Authorizes 'First-Ever Transfer' of Confiscated Russian Assets to Ukraine

Image copyright: AP [via South China Morning Post]

The Spin

Narrative A

With Ukraine continuing to receive advanced weaponry from the West and Russia exhausting its stockpiles, 2023 is the year of victory for Ukraine — including retaking the territory of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Narrative B

After taking Crimea nearly a decade ago, the peninsula is bristling with air defenses, and Russia has thousands of troops defending it. It's very unlikely that Ukraine will be able to retake the territory any time soon.

Metaculus Prediction


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