Day 378: Wagner Chief Claims Control Over Eastern Bakhmut

Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]

The Spin

Narrative A

Even if Russia takes control of Bakhmut, it should not be seen as a failure for Ukraine. They have inflicted extremely heavy losses on Russian forces and the logistical problems that have dogged Russia throughout the war remain. It will not be able to overcome these challenges to make further gains in Ukraine.

Narrative B

Russia's capture of Bakhmut is strategically important as has this been the logistics hub for Ukraine's forces in the rest of Donetsk. Its capture would also open up further roads of Russian advance in the region.

Metaculus Prediction


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