Why Ecuador’s Young President Matters to Washington
Americas QuarterlyNov 21, 2023
Daniel Noboa, the 35-year-old scion of a banana business empire, was sworn in as Ecuador's president Thursday in a ceremony attended by Colombia's Gustavo Petro and other foreign representatives following his victory in the October violence-ridden snap elections.
In a seven-minute speech, he urged Ecuadorians to join forces against misery and violence. Ecuador, which has a fiscal deficit larger than $3.2B and a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 62%, has seen a boom in homicides due to drug cartels as well as an unresolved electricity crisis.
The success of Noboa's months-long term will impact the future of democracy in Latin America, so Washington must swiftly step in to help him pull Ecuador out of its current crises and prevent the nation from once again supporting the authoritarian, pro-China correísmo. The costs of pursuing this action are little, particularly considering its substantial payoff, but the window of opportunity is closing.
With Noboa in office, it's likely that the US will seek once again to intervene militarily in Ecuador with the feigned intent of collaborating against narco-trafficking and strengthening democratic governance. These moves, however, are intended exclusively to protect American interests in a country that has vast extractable reserves.
There's a 90% chance that Daniel Noboa will remain in office through the end of his term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.