In big climate move, EPA set to unveil tough limits on auto emissions
Washington PostApr 09, 2023
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing to release proposed federal emissions standards for light-duty vehicles. If implemented, the new, tighter restrictions would shift the US car market towards electric vehicles over the next decade.
The new greenhouse gas performance standards would begin for light-duty vehicles with a model year 2027 and gradually increase through model year 2032. By 2032, the rules would make 64-67% of all new-car sales in the US electric vehicles.
Auto emission rules are crucial in helping the US meet its overall climate goals. The transportation sector is the country’s biggest source of planet-warming gases. Shifting the US auto industry to EVs, which don't produce tailpipe emissions, is one of the fastest ways to address climate change.
The proposed rules are so strict that most automakers will not realistically be able to keep up with this timeline. Many automakers are already in the middle of remaking their companies and assembly lines to produce more electric vehicles but they need more time and support to make the transition. No matter what the EPA rules are, the industry move to electric vehicles will largely hinge on factors outside of the industry's control, such as the insufficient availability of public and private EV charging stations and a potential shortage of raw materials.
There is an 80% chance that the EPA will grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.