Erdoğan Submits Sweden's Bid for NATO Membership to Turkish Parliament

Erdoğan Submits Sweden's Bid for NATO Membership to Turkish Parliament
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The Spin

Narrative A

While claiming the delay in Sweden's ratification to be down to a lack of progress in Ankara's demanded crackdown of the PKK, Erdoğan's unexpected demands last month for F-16 fighter jets from the US in return for its NATO approval makes any judgment on the outcome of the parliamentary process difficult to estimate. There's no telling when Turkey — and Hungary — will finally allow Sweden to join the alliance.

Narrative B

Turkey has upheld its promise despite Sweden repeatedly allowing the PKK to spread propaganda and hold anti-Turkey rallies, as Stockholm has reassured that it will not support such an organization to grow its influence. Given that a bilateral security mechanism, as well as a NATO Special Coordinator on Counterterrorism, has been agreed to be established if Sweden joins the alliance, there is confidence in a speedy ratification.

Metaculus Prediction


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