Erdogan's increasingly autocratic behavior and frivolous geopolitical bargaining are the only reasons for Turkey's stagnant EU accession bid. Only when the democratic backsliding, deterioration of fundamental rights, and the rule of law are stopped, — as well as Ankara balancing its geopolitical ambitions with its core economic interests — will relations with the West and the EU improve.
Turkey is a key economic and defense partner for the EU, yet anti-Turkey circles are attempting to bully Ankara by leveling unjust accusations based on prejudice alone. Besides, it's not Ankara's loss — a failure to grant Turkey membership in the EU will only hurt Europe's chance to redefine both itself and its raison d’être. This is an unfair way to treat a nation that comprises NATO's second-largest army.
There's a 13% chance that Turkey will be a member of the European Union by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.