There Is A Time-Honored Way To Help Ukraine Quickly Defeat Russia
Facts
- In a move aiming to further pressure the Kremlin's fossil fuel earnings and reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy — which previously accounted for 10% of Europe's diesel — the EU on Sunday imposed a ban on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products.[1]
- This follows a Group of Seven (G7) countries' agreement to cap diesel, jet fuel, and petrol at $100 per barrel. This will allow Russia to sell to China and India to avoid sudden worldwide price jumps while also reducing Moscow's profits to fund its war.[2]
- Diesel prices have risen significantly in recent months due to increased demand and a shortage of refining capacity, which has contributed to worldwide inflation. Diesel is key to the global economy as it is used for farm transport, agricultural equipment, and factory equipment.[3]
- The new sanctions have created uncertainty about fuel prices as the EU seeks to replace Russian diesel with that from the US, the Middle East, and India. However, due to its geographic distance, distribution is stressing available tankers.[4]
- US Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen said Friday that the new sanctions would help the world weaken Russia's economy and undermine its military, adding that "Combined with our historic sanctions, we are forcing Putin to choose between funding his brutal war or propping up his struggling economy."[5]
- Aimed at preventing market turmoil, the import ban is being extended by 55 days for diesel loaded on tankers before Sunday, with EU officials saying it should be enough time for importers to adjust their approach since the ban was announced in June.[6]
Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
Economic sanctions have certainly made life difficult for Putin, but they'll never work to end the war on Kyiv's terms. The only thing that will work is providing more military assistance to the Ukrainian army. The West has a moral responsibility to step up and equip Ukraine with the armaments and defenses it needs to fend off Russia once and for all.
Pro-Russia narrative
The US's ultimate goal and reason for supporting Ukraine is to isolate and weaken Russia; NATO's expansion has always been aimed at controlling the Baltic Sea and with it Russia's means of exporting resources. Though neoconservatives have tried hard to isolate Russia completely — e.g. potentially disrupting the Nordstream pipeline — the nations of the world won't overhaul their economies just to cave to US hegemony.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Russia will produce at least 9.50M barrels of oil per day by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
