Evangelical Leader Says Trump is Beatable in Iowa Caucus

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The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

While he's seen as the favorite to win the Iowa Caucus, Trump's support is tenuous among the state's Evangelical base. Not only has DeSantis received Gov. Kim Reynolds' endorsement, but he's now set to be endorsed by Bob Vander Plaats, which could propel him to victory. Trump has been ignoring the debates and is now snubbing a critical conservative group in Iowa, which could lead to his loss in that state.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump is still the king of the GOP and is as popular in Iowa as ever. The establishment wants to take Trump down and is endorsing candidates like Ron DeSantis, but the truth is that the GOP base is overwhelmingly loyal to the former president. Plaats and Reynold's endorsements could propel DeSantis to second place, but Donald Trump will win the Iowa Caucus en route to earning the nomination by a landslide.

Metaculus Prediction


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