F-16 Jets Arrive in Romania for Ukrainian Training

F-16 Jets Arrive in Romania for Ukrainian Training
Image copyright: Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

While it seems like Moscow and Kyiv are currently at a stalemate in this war, Russia's dominance in the skies has proven not just by destroying enemy military targets but half of Ukraine's energy sector more generally. If things continue this way, Ukrainians will be facing blackouts as the winter approaches. Ukraine is in rough shape and Western meddling — F-16s and otherwise — won't tip the scales.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine's reliance on Western allies is its strength, not a weakness. Allies like the US have so far given Ukraine just enough to keep Russia at bay, which, unfortunately, has given Putin enough leeway to continue meddling in other regions of the world like the Middle East and Asia. If the West dropped all its military aid package conditions — such as Germany's ban on using its weapons to strike Russian soil — Ukraine could defeat Russia once and for all while allowing the West to focus on countering the other global threats posed by the Kremlin.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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