Canada and New Zealand Need to Consider Joining Pillar 2 of AUKUS
The DiplomatSep 21, 2023
Foreign Minister: New Zealand Seeks to Strengthen US Ties
The Facts
During a speech at the United States Business Summit in Auckland on Thursday, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said that the Asia-Pacific country held a "crucial role" in "promoting shared values" alongside the US.
Peters said that both countries "share[d] a special connection" founded upon "democratic values," and continued that New Zealand sought to "strengthen engagement" with the US on "strategic and security challenges." Peters' speech was his first since being appointed foreign minister.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
New Zealand must reaffirm its ties with the United States to strengthen the union of liberal democracy worldwide, and ensure global security. New Zealand is already a member of the Five Eyes intelligence group, and should heavily consider becoming part of AUKUS' second stage. While a reaction from China is inevitable, Auckland must expand its limited foreign policy beyond a dependency on its Australian neighbor.
Pro-China narrative
Luxon's new coalition government cannot magically restore the country's economy, and so the Prime Minister would be wise to keep the ideologically driven, pro-US wing of the government in check with China remaining New Zealand's dominant trading partner. There is hope that there will be continuity in Auckland's foreign policy, although the country's three-party coalition may prove to be unpredictable.
Nerd narrative
There is an 18% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.