The Global South has successfully blocked attempts from Western powers to "Ukrainianize" the G20 agenda, protecting its own legitimate interests and needs. This further indicates that developing countries will no longer accept the use of multilateral tools to promote one-sided perspectives — especially in a forum that hasn't been established to discuss situations such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
The softened language on Russia's war in Ukraine is not a Western defeat, but rather a strategic move to boost India's global influence in a bid to isolate Russia and China. While substantially similar to the joint statement issued in Bali last year, this latest communique has brought the West closer to major democracies in the Global South, which are key swing actors in world issues. The revised language on the Ukraine front is unfortunate, but ultimately the entire statement is a boon for democracies worldwide.
There's a 4% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.