The BJP's loss in Karnataka shows India's secular fabric will always reign supreme. It also indicates the failure of Modi's popularity, his muscular brand of politics, and the BJP's attempts to polarise the voters between majority Hindus and minority Muslims. Moreover, the Congress' win reflects the success of Rahul Gandhi's 3.5K km cross-country Unity March to rejuvenate its cadre, expose BJP's divisive and communal politics, and win people's hearts. A victory in Karnataka will give Congress a much-needed morale boost ahead of next year's national election.
The election results in Karnataka are neither an indicator of voter sentiment nor necessarily indicate an advantage to the Congress in the general elections next year, as Narendra Modi is too big a challenge for the Congress party to handle. The BJP has consistently delivered its promise of development and social welfare measures, and under Modi's leadership, the party will woo voters and dominate politics all over again. One election victory would not improve the Congress's fortunes as the context and narratives will differ significantly in 2024.
There's a 63% chance that BJP will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.