How did Modi lose Karnataka — and could he lose India?
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India: Gandhi’s Congress Defeats Modi’s BJP in Karnataka
Last updated May 15, 2023
Image credit: aljazeeraFacts
- On Saturday, voters overwhelmingly backed India's main opposition party in a crucial Assembly election in the southern state of Karnataka, in a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has been ruling the country since 2014.[1]
- The Congress won a nearly two-thirds majority, winning 136 of the 224 Assembly seats, securing a vote share of 42.95% — far higher than the BJP's 35.95% — and ousting the BJP from the only southern state it governed.[2]
- As it became clear that the BJP had been defeated, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi stated that "the market of hate has been shut, and shops of love have opened."[3]
- Jairam Ramesh, the Congress general secretary, attributed the party's win to having fought the election campaign on local issues of "livelihood and food security, price rise [sic], farmer distress, electricity supply, joblessness, and corruption."[4]
- Meanwhile, Modi, who campaigned aggressively in the state for days, thanked BJP workers for working hard, adding, "We shall serve Karnataka with even more vigor in the times to come."[5]
- The Congress party's victory in Karnataka comes six months after the BJP lost the northern state of Himachal Pradesh to the Congress last December.[6]
Spin
Left narrative
The BJP's loss in Karnataka shows India's secular fabric will always reign supreme. It also indicates the failure of Modi's popularity, his muscular brand of politics, and the BJP's attempts to polarise the voters between majority Hindus and minority Muslims. Moreover, the Congress' win reflects the success of Rahul Gandhi's 3.5K km cross-country Unity March to rejuvenate its cadre, expose BJP's divisive and communal politics, and win people's hearts. A victory in Karnataka will give Congress a much-needed morale boost ahead of next year's national election.
Right narrative
The election results in Karnataka are neither an indicator of voter sentiment nor necessarily indicate an advantage to the Congress in the general elections next year, as Narendra Modi is too big a challenge for the Congress party to handle. The BJP has consistently delivered its promise of development and social welfare measures, and under Modi's leadership, the party will woo voters and dominate politics all over again. One election victory would not improve the Congress's fortunes as the context and narratives will differ significantly in 2024.
Nerd narrative
There's a 63% chance that BJP will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
