Hypersonic option
Tehran TimesJun 06, 2023
On Tuesday, Iran's state media unveiled pictures of the "Fattah" — the state's first domestically-made hypersonic ballistic missile. It was unveiled at a ceremony attended by President Ebrahim Raisi and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The name, which approximately translates to "the opener," was chosen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the missile being claimed to have a range of 1.4K km (870 mi) and reach a speed of Mach 15.
While, ironically, America's withdrawal from the 2015 agreement was intended to curb Iran's missile program, instead Tehran has achieved a historic feat in joining an exclusive international military elite. The Fattah missile is a response to threats from both Israel and the US, and because Iran's military technology continues to make significant progress, hostile actors will now think twice about inflicting aggression.
Available facts concerning Iran's latest missile cast doubt on the state's claim of success. With current technology producing similar missiles of a speed of around 5-8 Machs, Iran's claim of 15 Machs seems like an exaggeration. In addition, no information was given concerning whether such a speed would be during initial phases, or rather when reaching a target. With many Russian claims of a hypersonic weapon being proved wrong during the Ukraine war, Iran's unveiling should be taken with a generous pinch of salt.
There is a 3% chance of the US rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.