Experienced Israeli officials, as well as all major Palestinian groups, know better than Itamar Ben-Gvir that his hardline approach to Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails risks further escalating violence in the Gaza Strip. Yet, he is unlikely to stop provoking Palestinians, as if confrontations in the West Bank were not enough. Netanyahu is forcing Israelis to pay for his regime's recklessness.
Though Palestinian militant groups will try to use the prisoner issue by linking it with Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, Ben-Gvir had to advance these measures to ensure Israel's ability to regain control of its prisons. Palestinian prisoners had been treated with too much leeway — even celebrating the attacks in East Jerusalem from their jail cells, all at the expense of Israeli taxpayers.
There's a 50% chance that Israel will have a national election for Knesset in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.