Japan: Kishida Says Nation 'On the Brink' with Population Decline

    Photo: AA/Picture Alliance [via DW]

    The Facts

    • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the government will take action to address the nation's declining birthrate, which fell to a record low in 2021. It is "now or never" for Japan, said the political leader.

    • The government has attempted to encourage people to have larger families in recent years, promoting incentives including cash bonuses and improved benefits. However, the promises did not stop births from dropping below 800K last year for the first time — the notable moment came eight years sooner than the government had expected.


    The Spin

    Narrative A

    This population decline is the result of successive governmental failings to act swiftly or decisively on the issue of Japan's aging demographics. Despite vague promises to address slow growth and low pay in recent months, Kishida has failed to intervene with private employers to raise wages or commit government funding to make having children more affordable. The Prime Minister has continually dodged public debate over who will fund these necessary incentives to protect his electoral chances.

    Narrative B

    Japan's declining birthrate is not only a political issue — the declining population is inextricably linked to the nation's hostility to immigration. Only about 3% of its population is foreign-born and, until Japan adapts to be more accepting of a homogenous, immigration-based society that challenges the rigid hierarchy at the center of its culture, it will continue to face economic and social decline. This demographic crunch can't be blamed on the prime minister alone.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 57% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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