On Monday, Bangladesh's health authorities announced that dengue has killed 1,017 people in the country since January. This includes more than 100 children aged under 15, while the number of infections has risen to more than 208K.
The figures for 2023 are Bangladesh’s worst recorded for the mosquito-borne disease since it was first documented in 2000. The death toll this year currently sits at nearly four times more than that of 2022.
South Asia is a frontline region in the global climate change war. Bangladesh, a riverine-delta country, is bearing the full force of climate-related impacts. Longer-than-usual rainy seasons, high temperatures, and high humidity have led to an explosion of mosquito populations that are exacerbating this dengue crisis.
An overlooked factor in the dengue crisis is demography. South Asia, especially Bangladesh, is one of the world's most densely populated regions. This puts immense pressure on its public health system, especially due to unplanned urbanization. In addition, 1.2M Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar have particular health vulnerabilities. Bangladesh's healthcare system is not able to keep up with these population patterns.
There's a 90% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according the to Metaculus prediction community.