Kremlin Threatens to Confiscate EU Assets

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The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

The US, UK, and EU have already poured billions of dollars, euros, and pounds into military, humanitarian, and financial assistance for Ukraine. However, as Russia is responsible for the massive damage caused by its war of aggression against Ukraine, Moscow should ultimately foot the bill for Ukraine's long-term reconstruction — an endeavor the World Bank estimates will require at least $434B (€411B).

Pro-Russia narrative

The Russian Central Bank's assets are sovereign and, therefore, protected under international law from confiscation and expropriation. Moscow will interpret any move to use the country's funds as an unlawful and defiantly unfriendly attack. If the West fails to adhere to the principles of an open economy, the Kremlin will have the right to take retaliatory actions to protect its assets.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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