Providing Kyiv with long-range missiles or NATO's military expansion in the Arctic undermines regional security and warrants countermeasures from Moscow. Russia is not a threat to anyone — the real threat emanates from the White House, which is trying to increase its security posture at the expense of upsetting the regional balance and prolonging the conflict.
Ukraine acquiring the long-range tactical ballistic missiles would equip Kyiv to strike key Russian command posts, formidable air defense systems, and high-value Russian military targets in occupied territory. It would also constrain Russian logistics — essential to helping Ukrainian troops break through Moscow's defenses and push south toward the coast.
There's a 50% chance that the US will supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) no earlier than Jan. 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.