Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Announces Its Dissolution

    Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation [via Wikimedia Commons]

    The Facts

    • According to a decree signed by Nagorno-Karabakh Pres. Samvel Shakhramanyan on Thursday, the region's state institutions will be dismantled by the end of the year and the self-declared republic will cease to exist as of Jan. 1, 2024.

    • Since Azerbaijan's 24-hour offensive last week that led to local forces surrendering, around 70.5K people — over half the region's population — have reportedly crossed into Armenia via the Lachin corridor.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Hundreds of years of Armenian history will soon be erased as Azerbaijan seeks to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to its indigenous Armenian population. The world, yet again, is watching in silence as long-dispossessed people are pushed out of their homeland.

    Narrative B

    Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This will dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war — Azerbaijan only seeks to live in harmony with its neighbors.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 1% chance that the UN Security Council will adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before Oct. 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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