This week in Bidenomics: The back-to-normal economy
Yahoo FinanceDec 08, 2023
Nonfarm Payrolls Up 199K, US Unemployment Falls to 3.7%
The Facts
The latest jobs report from the US Labor Department, released on Friday, showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 199K in November, slightly exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 190K and outpacing October’s gain of 150K.
The data also showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 3.7%, while annual hourly wages increased 0.4% on a monthly rate. Both are well within historic ranges but unemployment rose by 0.2% compared to November last year when wage growth was at 5%.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
While it may seem like the pandemic ended a while ago, its economic impact was expected to continue for years to come. However, the Biden administration has made great progress in bringing the US economy back to normal in less than three years. Biden was dealt an unbelievably difficult hand, and policymakers have grappled with how to bring down inflation without bringing the economy to a standstill. Despite some bumps in the road, the US economy is finally starting to work as it should.
Republican narrative
At first, this November report may look positive, but as always, the devil lies in the details. Job growth still lagged behind the average monthly growth over the previous 12 months, with government jobs again supporting the upward trend that neutralized a loss in retail jobs just a month away from the busy Christmas and holiday shopping season. Small businesses and ordinary Americans are facing a difficult time under Bidenomics more than ever.
Cynical narrative
Just like all statistics, employment rates and job growth can be molded to fit different agendas, and November’s labor report is no different. While politicians look to score political points for better-than-expected job growth, they casually omit the fact that most of the high-wage growth came from unionized workers ending their strikes – meaning that no new jobs were actually created. The economy is still in a state of limbo, and we are definitely not in the clear when it comes to returning to normal.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that the US unemployment rate will reach 10% before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.