One can never predict what the next revolutionary technology will be, or exactly how profound of an impact it will make, but a new device created by OpenAI and Jony Ive could have a monumental impact. The iPhone revolutionized the way the world used mobile phones and devices, but the market has largely plateaued as most of the world has already been exposed. OpenAI has taken the lead as the industry’s premier company.
While hyping up a potential device as the “smartphone of AI” is sure to provoke ideas of grandeur and wonder, this mystery device is still just an idea, and we are far away from any tangible product. At this point, there's only some vague idea of an invention. As we've learned from smartphones, tablets, and wearable tech, it also takes multiple iterations of breakthrough products to establish a reliable market for these devices. A robust market for a device like this will be a long way away.
There's a 1% chance that Robin Hanson will win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate at least $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.