Even this violence and chaos won't shake the military's hold over Pakistan | Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar
GuardianMay 24, 2023
Pakistani officials on Friday confirmed that the country's Federal Investigation Agency, responsible for immigration and border control, placed former PM Imran Khan, his wife, and over 500 other leaders of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party on a no-fly list.
Khan, who himself imposed travel bans on opposition leaders while in office from 2018 to 2022, reacted by saying he welcomed the move, as he has neither "any properties or business abroad nor even a bank account outside the country."
Though Pakistan has been engulfed in a constitutional crisis that is threatening its stability, no player has shown any inclination so far to pull back. Instead of finding a democratic solution to this crisis, elected leaders across the political spectrum have been vying for the support of the military — even Khan and his PTI supporters, who are currently facing a military crackdown.
Even though Khan has focused specifically on disempowering Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, he cannot win this standoff as there's no common cause to bring people across the political spectrum together in his support. It was the military that brought Khan to power in 2018 and ousted him in 2022, so it makes sense that the PTI is attempting to exploit internal difference within the army to return to office.
There's a 25% chance that India will conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.