Pentagon Investigating Ukraine War Plans Leak

Image copyright: [via Science]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The leaked documents overestimate Ukrainian losses while underestimating those of Russia. This indicates that they were likely manipulated by the Kremlin before their release in order to help propagate the Kremlin's disinformation aims.

Establishment-critical narrative

If the documents were even partially faked, they would not be fooling anyone at the US Dept. of Defense, which is the owner of the original files. Other possibilities include that the files were in fact released by the US to misdirect Russia ahead of Ukraine's coming counteroffensive or that the documents are 100% authentic.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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