Poll: RFK Jr. Leads Trump, Biden Among Young Americans in Swing States

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The Spin

Narrative A

Kennedy is a clear favorite for voters who lack any appetite for either Trump or Biden. Holding the dynastic name and its associated glory, America's polarized environment has become the perfect opportunity for Kennedy to present himself as the rightful beneficiary of the alternative vote against the establishment parties. While it's unlikely that strong polling will transform into real votes in 2024, the surprising strength of his campaign highlights the discontent many hold towards the current state of the political system.

Narrative B

Those who are showing polling support for Kennedy lack true support for the independent candidate. An outcast of his family dynasty, Kennedy merely holds current popularity due to his position as an independent rather than any agreement over his radical ideology. Holding a hypocritical and often dangerous belief system, there should be little worry within the Trump and Biden camps that support for Kennedy will grow any further than current data places the independent at.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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