Americans are right to be lukewarm about Biden’s performance. A Biden 2024 run would force the democratic leader to answer for his age and mental capacity, as well as Kamala Harris’ poor performance as vice president, his own classified documents scandal, and the seemingly nonstop controversy surrounding his son, Hunter. Biden would also have to take responsibility for a slow economic recovery that might be hindered further by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate raising, while ordinary Americans continue to face rising prices.
Tribalism and negative media spin will always keep Biden's approval rating artificially low. The most important thing to consider in the context of a potential 2024 campaign is economic recovery, seen most recently in the jobs report. The predicted recession has yet to arrive and, if the economy stays on track, current successes will give Biden the kind of popularity among voters that would see him elected to the White House for a second term.
There is a 62% chance that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.