Polls Show Low Enthusiasm for Biden 2024 Campaign

    Polls Show Low Enthusiasm for Biden 2024 Campaign
    Last updated Feb 07, 2023
    Image credit: dailywire


    • A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that just 37% of Democrats want Pres. Joe Biden to seek a second term, a drop from the 52% who said they supported him running again in a poll taken just after last year's midterms.
    • Biden’s approval rating in this latest poll stood at 41% — similar to his approval at the end of 2022 — and it showed that a majority of Democrats approve of the president’s work. However, among all Americans, just 22% said he should run for re-election.
    • Most of the decline in those supporting a Biden run in 2024 came among the younger demographic, with 49% of Democrats 45 and older saying he should run again, in contrast to just 23% of those under 45.
    • A Washington Post-ABC News poll produced similar results, with 58% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they’d like a different nominee in 2024. In addition, 62% of Americans say they would be “dissatisfied” or “angry” if Biden was re-elected in 2024.
    • Despite the polling, a low approval rating, and an ongoing special investigation into his handling of classified documents, Biden’s appearance at the Democratic National Committee’s Winter Meeting over the weekend was met with chants of “four more years” from Democratic power brokers.
    • Biden, who has said several times in the past year that he expects to run again, will have a chance to publicize his accomplishments and vision for the future of the US when he gives his State of the Union address on Tuesday. No announcement about a 2024 run is expected before that speech.


    Republican narrative

    Americans are right to be lukewarm about Biden’s performance. A Biden 2024 run would force the democratic leader to answer for his age and mental capacity, as well as Kamala Harris’ poor performance as vice president, his own classified documents scandal, and the seemingly nonstop controversy surrounding his son, Hunter. Biden would also have to take responsibility for a slow economic recovery that might be hindered further by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate raising, while ordinary Americans continue to face rising prices.

    Democratic narrative

    Tribalism and negative media spin will always keep Biden's approval rating artificially low. The most important thing to consider in the context of a potential 2024 campaign is economic recovery, seen most recently in the jobs report. The predicted recession has yet to arrive and, if the economy stays on track, current successes will give Biden the kind of popularity among voters that would see him elected to the White House for a second term.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 62% chance that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Political split



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