Polls Suggest Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum May Fail

    Photo: Wikimedia Commons

    The Facts

    • Just a month before the vote, Australia's referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament appears to be in danger of failing after recent polls showed a further decline in support for the measure.

    • A survey conducted for the Sydney Morning Herald showed that voter opinion has swung against a Voice to Parliament for the fifth month in a row as the government struggles to convince skeptical and undecided voters to approve the proposal.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Australia has a chance to become a more inclusive and democratic nation by recognizing the First Peoples in its Constitution. The Voice referendum will give Australians this opportunity on Oct. 14.

    Narrative B

    The constitutional recognition of Indigenous people is desirable. However, this referendum on the Voice is not the way to achieve that goal. The real purpose of this referendum is to change our system of government by injecting a permanent element of racial privilege into the Constitution. It's essential to vote "no" on Oct.14.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that if the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, at least 41.82% of the voters will vote in favor, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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