Though the US has been trying to mend ties with China following months of strained relations, the predicted thaw has been obstructed as Beijing adopts a tougher stance concerning tech export controls and demands the dropping of sanctions imposed on its officials and companies. If China remains intransigent — pushing to set its own terms to re-engage with the US — cooling tensions will be very difficult.
While Washington blames Beijing for not engaging in superficial interactions allegedly intended to restore bilateral communications, its actions reveal that the US keeps harming Chinese interests in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. If the US wants to have a meaningful dialogue, it must take practical measures to build trust.
There is a 17% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.