Why a ‘Thaw’ in U.S.-China Relations Seems Far From Reach
New York TimesJun 01, 2023
The Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported — citing US officials familiar with highly-classified intelligence — that China and Cuba have secretly agreed to build an electronic eavesdropping facility on the Caribbean island, in another geopolitical challenge by Beijing to the US.
The PRC allegedly offered Havana several billion dollars to host the spy base, to which the two countries have agreed in principle. It will reportedly focus on gathering electronic communications — or "signals intelligence" — from throughout the southeastern US, where many US military bases are located.
Though the US has been trying to mend ties with China following months of strained relations, the predicted thaw has been obstructed as Beijing adopts a tougher stance concerning tech export controls and demands the dropping of sanctions imposed on its officials and companies. If China remains intransigent — pushing to set its own terms to re-engage with the US — cooling tensions will be very difficult.
While Washington blames Beijing for not engaging in superficial interactions allegedly intended to restore bilateral communications, its actions reveal that the US keeps harming Chinese interests in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. If the US wants to have a meaningful dialogue, it must take practical measures to build trust.
There is a 17% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.